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[Music]

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well it's really a great honor to be

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here today and the temptation to comment

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on the previous presentations is nearly

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overwhelming but I'm going to resist it

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and instead give you the talk that I

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wrote for today yes so what I'm going to

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talk about today is hidden events and

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we've we've already talked about some of

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the excesses of science we've talked

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about some of the excesses of

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alternative science but what I'm going

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to look at today is the ability of

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science to assimilate new information

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especially information that's highly

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disturbing so the title of my talk is

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battered kids and closed minds now one

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of the things that about anomalies is

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when we think about making decisions

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about anomalies we need to understand

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the dynamics of the sociology of

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information about anomalies okay and

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I've made this actually a fairly serious

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study I started the manuscript on this

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in 1984 and thanks to the encouragement

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of my local sse group i literally pulled

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this out of the closet and i've started

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working on this again so the talk that

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you're going to hear here is part of

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reflection of that that manuscript so

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i'm going to use the battered child

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what is it hidden event exactly hind'

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event is a widespread set of experiences

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that are counterintuitive and this

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shouldn't happen so information about

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them is slight and this contributes to

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keeping the event hidden now here are

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some key dates for the subject that

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we're going to talk about is there

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anybody in the room who's more

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knowledgeable about this than I am if

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there is I'd be curious to know because

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you can act as a good critic in 1947 the

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first paper in a radiology journal was

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published which discussed the battered

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child syndrome but interestingly enough

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it was largely a descriptive paper about

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the

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pattern of injuries that were seen by

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this particular physician John caffee

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without necessarily indicating that the

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origin of these injuries to children

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which he saw was due to parents or

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caretakers in 1955 there was a JAMA

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article published that was really

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excellent which discussed the

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possibility that some of the cases of

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child injury might be due to intentional

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abuse other possibilities that were

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considered was that parents might create

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an accident-prone environment and that

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the injuries might occur in a sort of

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unavoidable way in 1961 we'll talk about

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this in more detail at the academy of

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pediatrics symposium in Chicago

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the phrase battered child syndrome first

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entered public consciousness and we'll

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talk about how that happened in 1962 a

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definitive JAMA article Journal of the

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American Medical Association was

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published essentially detailing the

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kinds of things that one would expect to

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see in battered child cases 1964 T V Ben

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Casey and had an episode on child abuse

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this was very very important in

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informing the public much more important

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I think than the JAMA article was and

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finally in 1974 there was a passage of

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the child abuse treatment and Prevention

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Act and much could be said about that

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too but I need to pass on here

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now basically hidden events go through

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what I see is three stages first of all

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there are uncorrelated observations

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there are observations that don't seem

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to join up to form a pattern and we'll

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talk about how that happens then there

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is a controversy stage where there is

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some public discussion of the reality of

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whatever it is I believe UFOs are in

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this stage right now

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and number three the final acceptance or

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dismissal of whatever the anomaly is

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sometimes the final dismissal may may be

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a temporary thing as with for instance

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continental drift and may come back in a

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different form as continental drift did

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but quite often there is in fact a final

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acceptance of whatever the anomaly is

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now let's talk about the first stage

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uncorrelated observations and in the

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case of child abuse for years physicians

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would see injuries that children had

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that were unexplained by the parental

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histories parents would come into

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hospital with an injured child and the

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histories the parents this is a medical

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term the histories of parents gave did

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not explain the injuries that were seen

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and quite often interesting Lee now if

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the parents didn't seem to be terribly

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interested in the health of the child so

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the physicians were reluctant to believe

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that parents could inflict injuries like

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this and this was a potent bar to

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finding out about these kinds of things

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because if you don't want to find out

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about it often you don't one

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pediatrician stood up in a meeting and

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he said if I thought parents could do

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this to their children I would get out

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of Pediatrics immediately okay so this

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leads down to an interesting principle

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and the principle is this what we are

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willing to see is shaped by our ability

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by our ability to handle whatever the

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situation is I think this is a very

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important thing to understand that what

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we are willing to to bear witness to is

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often a function of how much power we

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feel we have to affect whatever the

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phenomenon is now in the uncorrelated

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event stage there is a kind of

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pluralistic ignorance so that this is a

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term by the way coined by the social

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psychologist Floyd Alport and you

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describe pluralistic ignorance as a

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situation in which many people have

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experiences but each person thinks that

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his or her experience is unique and

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therefore it's undiscussables since it's

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not comparable to other people's

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experiences I could give you lots of

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examples from my own researches on this

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about people who felt that they had seen

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somebody know something nobody else had

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seen and we're really

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to find that whatever they were seeing

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was something that actually a lot of

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other people had seen ball lightning is

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a common example of this but the basic

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point is if people don't discuss what

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happens to them

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the system cannot learn now there is a

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transition in many cases from

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uncorrelated observations to the

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controversy stage and a controversy

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stage is typically triggered by

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somebody's seeing a group of

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observations a pattern that they can

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make sense of in some way and they can

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give it a name so this helps them

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organize their own perceptions but it

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also helps organize the perceptions of

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other people and by the way encourages

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reporting because when people publish an

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account of some sort of event other

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people can then jump in and say oh I I

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had one of those and you'll see how this

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happened with the battered child

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syndrome but at the same time there are

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other people who feel whatever is

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described by this class events is

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somehow impossible it can't exist and

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battered child syndrome a typical case

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would present with fractures to the long

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bones or phalanges sometimes in

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different stages of healing subdural

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hematomas blood blisters on the brain

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and often a lack of relevant history to

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explain the injuries now here is an

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example from a social worker of

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essentially creating a controversy by

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coming forward with providing a name for

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something which previously had not been

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seen to be a class of events when miss

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Elmer was asking a nurse on the infant

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floor at Children's Hospital in

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Pittsburgh about a case she'd heard

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about where a particular child had been

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injured brought to the hospital by the

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parents and parents had left the

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hospital she wept to the infant floor

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and asked for the cards for the case the

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nurse came back with six cards

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and she says if I had thought in such

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terms at all it would have considered

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the original case unique but in the few

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minutes revealing talk with the nurse

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abuse had become a class of events with

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ramifications far beyond to the infant

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and family but others doubted that

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parents could do this to their kids and

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pediatricians who came across these

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cases as well as by the way radiologists

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had difficulty dealing with these things

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because there was nothing written about

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it and this is a quotation from one of

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the pediatricians I interviewed he said

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I remember one trip down to San Antonio

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he said usually everybody would gather

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and then some of the older experienced

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pediatricians would sneak up to you at

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the cocktail hour

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they said you see you know I've seen a

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number of these cases there's just

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nothing written about it so the fact

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that there's nothing written about it

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tends to indicate to you that you

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shouldn't in fact believe in what you're

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actually seeing now an interesting

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comparison to this by the way was the

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discovery of the ozone hole how many of

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you are familiar with the history of the

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discovery of the ozone hole

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all right well for the rest of you what

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happened was very interesting the

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British had observed the ozone hole for

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several years before they revealed its

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existence and why did they sit on the

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data because the Americans had not seen

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it and they knew the Americans had they

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knew the Americans had a satellite

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called the Nimbus 7 and this satellite

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had a sensing device that would tell you

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what was going on in the upper

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atmosphere well the Americans had a

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glitch in the computer actually been

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programmed in that ignored out size

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values of ozone so what happened was the

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Americans reprogrammed their computer

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and the ozone hole stood out what had

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happened is a systematic blind spot had

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been programmed into the t computer

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now with the battered child syndrome one

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physician suggested it might be bone

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fragility these were kids were easily

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injured but they stopped being injured

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when they got to the hospital so this

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lead sent to the third stage and the

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third stage is resolution when the issue

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comes together and is finally admitted

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to be a fact the person who convinces

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the world by about this by the way is a

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person who connects the dots Charles

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Darwin was the person who convinced the

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world about evolution and that was

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because he connected the dots he wasn't

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the first person to discover evolution

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and in fact it wasn't even the first

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person to publish on it or actually what

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happened is when the William Wallace

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wrote into the journal Nature the

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publication was held up until Darwin

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could prepare a paper himself so he and

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Wallace both got credit for this

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something for the battered child

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syndrome the person who did this was

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Henry Kemp a pediatrician a head of

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pediatrics at the University of Colorado

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Kemp had been observing cases of child

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abuse for years but found his resident

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physicians at the University of Colorado

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didn't want to see it so the key event

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for him was treating a system that would

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allow them to do something about child

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abuse if people saw it and the key thing

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yes thank you the key thing was creating

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an interdisciplinary team to deal with

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the child abuse a team of pediatrician

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radiologists and social worker in 1961

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he was the head of the academy of

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pediatrics he decided to use his

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position to broadcast what he thought

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was going on and he did this in the

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Grand Ballroom of the Palmer House in

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Chicago the Palmer House ballroom held a

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thousand people he had an

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interdisciplinary panel he invited the

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press and the result was stupendous

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basically the battered child syndrome

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was put on the social agenda

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so the interdisciplinary team then was

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what enabled him to do something about

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it and that was what encouraged him and

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his fellow pediatricians to go forward

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and do something about the battered

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child syndrome so the ability to see the

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problem was in

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connected with the ability to do

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something about it now an interesting

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question is why didn't John caffee the

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pediatric radiologist who published the

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original paper why wasn't he the person

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who brought this forward and the answer

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was he was afraid of legal action he was

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afraid that Pediatric Radiology which he

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had pioneered in which he was deeply

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connected with would be harmed by

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talking about something as far out as

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battered children so he literally sat on

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the data as far as his publications were

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concerned he did confide in his

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residents about this so principle number

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three is an anomaly will seldom be

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accepted based on physical evidence

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alone it has to be connected up to what

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we already know and this by the way for

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ball lightning has been a the kiss of

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death because nobody really knows what

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ball lightning is and therefore since we

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can't explain it we can't accept it all

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right so here's my summary first of all

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when you're dealing with a hidden event

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reports will be scarce at first if you

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say there can't be any reports often

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there won't be three if you expect to be

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the first to know often you aren't

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experts sometimes say well hey I would

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be the first person to know about this

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well often they aren't for if you create

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channels for reporting you will get

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reporting this is certainly true the

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battered child syndrome which originally

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seemed to be hundreds of cases and now

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seems like millions for the United

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States if you encourage reporting there

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will be more of it and sometimes there's

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over reporting and many of you have

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known as you've gone into the hospital

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with an injured child or something like

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that you're gonna be questioned about

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your role in creating the injuries and

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the child I had this happen with my

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mother who was brought to the hospital

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one day second and they questioned me

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for a long time

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so finally resolution the

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solution of all these things has to do

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with connecting the dots to attach

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causes to effects to show how this fits

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into the scheme of knowledge and so

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forth

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so this is the end of the presentation

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thank you very much for listening thank

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you Ron for an excellent presentation on

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a very serious subject do we have any

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subject was - serious question as I've

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been long interested in this problem of

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resistant to innovation not only in the

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medical field but in in other fields as

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well and I'm wondering it Ron do you

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know of anybody who's done any studies

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to show the show the actual length of

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time from will say the discovery of a

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phenomenon or a disease or an event or

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something like this - the time of actual

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acceptance because it's in some cases

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it's hundreds even thousands of years

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like Democritus and the you know the

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theories of atoms and the Greek times of

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Greek and then it was wrong idea it was

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actually accepted so let me let me let

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me give you an example Mosteller the

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statistician has an article on

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innovation in Mosteller

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has an article on innovation in science

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ok the science a journal and he talks

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about the discovery of lime juice and

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its effectiveness in the British Navy

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and as I recall basically the lag

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between the first discovery of the

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importance of lime juice and its

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systemic uses about 100 years ok I'll be

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happy to give you some other references

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for for similar things in medicine and

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so forth sociologists of technology and

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medicine have had for a long time lists

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of things that were resisted by

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scientists and so forth in spite of

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discoveries ins and and basically

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everybody with a new discovery has to

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fight a battle of some lengths to you

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know to get whatever their discovery is

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accepted science seldom welcomes with

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open arms people who come forward with

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could you stand up start treating ulcer

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disease duodenal ulcer disease with

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antibiotics even though it was proven

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that it was caused by a bacteria and for

401
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about five to ten years doctors would

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you know reluctantly give the bacteria

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because it was standard or given

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antibiotic because it was standard of

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care but they would also give the

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antacids and tell people to avoid coffee

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but it took ten years um you've given us

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a very good microcosmic look it was a

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more macro but I believe it's more

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macrocosmic problem and I'm sure

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everyone here can find their own

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research and your little principles and

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such and I think this is very applicable

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to the evolution of science as a whole

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in fact your last step could be if it's

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a big enough connecting the dots it

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could be a scientific revolution have

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you personally tried to put it into

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these larger perspectives scientific

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evolution repulsion the fact is is that

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I disagree with Henry slightly that he

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thinks science has gotten worse I think

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it's it's been pretty bad all along when

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I come when a kind when it comes to this

425
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kind of stuff okay I think I've done

426
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essentially a comparative study of these

427
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hidden events including the meteorite

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case battered children black footed

429
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ferret UFOs sea serpents ball lightning

430
00:19:31,820 --> 00:19:29,610
etc etc etc there are remarkably common

431
00:19:33,470 --> 00:19:31,830
patterns this is not to say that the

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00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:33,480
stuff that's more questionable today

433
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will ultimately be proven to be correct

434
00:19:41,570 --> 00:19:38,580
but simply denote you know John

435
00:19:43,399 --> 00:19:41,580
Alexander has made fun of faint signals

436
00:19:45,830 --> 00:19:43,409
but often these events announce

437
00:19:48,110 --> 00:19:45,840
themselves by faint signals and the key

438
00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:48,120
is what is the device by which we sort

439
00:19:51,950 --> 00:19:50,010
out the signals and to those that are

440
00:19:53,810 --> 00:19:51,960
potentially researchable it's a very

441
00:19:57,680 --> 00:19:53,820
interesting comment on this by the way

442
00:19:59,720 --> 00:19:57,690
made by Jean Baptiste Bo who was a

443
00:20:02,000 --> 00:19:59,730
discoverer in many respects of

444
00:20:04,970 --> 00:20:02,010
meteorites and did the first report on

445
00:20:07,850 --> 00:20:04,980
the fall in 1803 that essentially

446
00:20:10,550 --> 00:20:07,860
the meteorite situation for science and

447
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:10,560
he said in these matters he said the

448
00:20:17,570 --> 00:20:14,250
uninformed simply believe the half seven

449
00:20:20,090 --> 00:20:17,580
decides but the instructed person knows

450
00:20:23,120 --> 00:20:20,100
how to do research and I think that's a

451
00:20:26,900 --> 00:20:23,130
good thought for the sse yes we have to

452
00:20:29,450 --> 00:20:26,910
know how to do research I think you've

453
00:20:32,270 --> 00:20:29,460
also at least for me I think you've

454
00:20:35,570 --> 00:20:32,280
shown me that it isn't just me it's more

455
00:20:38,150 --> 00:20:35,580
or less endemic to human nature yes I

456
00:20:42,410 --> 00:20:38,160
think so we call this section the

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sociology of science so thank you thank